Gold price witnessed a flurry of activity in 2020 where the yellow metal sank to Rs 38400 per 10gms ($1451.10 per ounce) in March initially but as the global markets nosedived due to the uncertainty caused by Covid-19, investors dumped riskier assets and rushed towards the safety of gold which fueled a sharp rise in prices towards Rs 56191 per 10gms ($2075 per ounce), an all-time high in 2020, reports Religare Broking.
In order to combat the coronavirus damage, unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus by central banks and weak dollar kept the precious metal elevated amid strong investment buying. However, gold price came under pressure later amid signs of revival in economic activity as lockdown restrictions eased around the world, which turned investors’ focus to riskier assets. In early November, gold price witnessed further downside on the back of effective Covid-19 vaccine developments that took a toll on its safe-haven appeal. Though the precious metal has given up some of the gains by retracing almost 10 percent from its historic peak, prices are still closing the year with nearly 29 percent returns as we stand ready to welcome 2021.
Will gold price rise?
Evaluating the broad fundamentals, gold price is likely to maintain its charm as macroeconomic factors seem supportive for the metal.
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1. The environment of ultra-loose monetary policy and real rates in negative territory is here to stay for the year ahead, which is likely to cause the debasement of currencies and in turn, favor gold price.
2. The Federal Reserve has pledged to keep the target rate near zero until inflation increases. The US Federal Reserve has adopted a new approach to monetary policy in which it will tolerate higher inflation averaging 2 percent and above, committing to leaving interest rates near record lows for a longer period. This will help gold price.
3. The massive amount of liquidity and dovish stance of the Fed has resulted in a more than six percent decline in the dollar year to date, where the greenback is unlikely to return to significant strength in the coming year as well and shall give gold price more room to surge higher.
Should you buy gold?
Referring to sentiments on the gold price chart, as prices have cooled off after a sharp advance, it offers an opportunity to add gold to one’s portfolio from a long term perspective.
Gold price support levels Rs 47700-47200
Though gold price volatility may remain high after the sharp run-up, metal has a firm support zone at Rs 47700-47200 per 10 gms levels ($1750 per ounce), while the major floor is seen at $1680 per ounce or Rs 44800 per 10 gms. As long as the counter is placed above the mentioned support area, long term structure looks positive where one can expect an upside move by gold price towards Rs 53500 per 10 gms initially and then towards Rs 60500 per 10 gms mark in the medium term.
Gold Price Record High Rs 65000?
For the year 2021, prices can even scale higher towards Rs 65000 per 10 gms. So, the gold price story is here to stay for 2021!!